Water GenbuTier 1
at HVN Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +13.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.9% | +5.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.4% | -2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.9% | +6.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.6% | +16.0 |
| Wind Kongming | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.3 |
| Wind Overlord | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Defender's Maul | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |